Post by observer on Jan 20, 2013 6:42:27 GMT
Having an idle moment this morning...........I think (?) the following applies.
To save you reading through, my suggestion is we focus on our game only and get that point required! The chances of a home ¼ are remote and qualifying in any way is the name of the game!
The top 4 get home ¼ finals and there is then a draw for who they play from positions 5 to 8.
Level on points goes to 1/ Number of wins 2/ Points difference.
Leader Board after Sat 19th results
1/ Bedford P5 25 (tbc Bedford Blues v Bedwas)
2/ Newcastle P5 24 (Friday, 1 February Cross Keys v Newcastle)
3/ Cornish Pirates P6 24
4/ Munster A P6 23
5/ Leinster P6 22
6/ Bristol P5 22 (Bristol v Cardiff today – can get max 27 pts)
7/ Llandovery P5 – 20 (tbc Nottingham v Llandovery – can get max 25 points)
8/ Moseley P5 19 (Llanelli v Moseley today – can get max 24 points)
One home ¼ final tie available – 4th seed
Whilst the focus is on actually qualifying by whatever result (securing 1 point as a minimum or denying Llanelli a bonus point win) there still is an outside chance of a home tie. Remote but possible.
We can’t overhaul Pirates (5 wins & +80 points difference), Newcastle (5 wins and +200 points difference) or Bedford (too many points!) meaning we are theoretically able to secure 4th place home tie berth..............but not today!
IF we get a 5 point win then we cannot be caught by either Munster and Leinster but CAN be overtaken by Bristol (playing today) or Llandovery (presume replaying next weekend).
The logic/stats
Moseley can get a maximum of 24 points which this morning would have us in that 4th position with 5 wins and a points difference of 10 plus whatever happens today.
Level on points then goes to wins. IF we get level on 24 it will be with 5 wins out of 6. Likely to be the same stat for those who we are competing with for the 4th home tie spot.
Therefore goes to points difference.
When will we know
If we don’t win today but get a point (or deny Llanelli a winning bonus point) we will qualify and await the draw for any away tie.
If we win today but without a try bonus we will qualify and await the draw for any away tie.
If we win with a bonus point and Bristol don’t lose then we will qualify and await the draw for any away tie.
If we win WITH a try bonus today AND Bristol only get a single point or less then we will qualify and have to wait until next weekend (presumably) to find out if we have a home tie. We would then need Nottingham to deny Llandovery victory of any description for the 4th home slot.
Simples eh?
IF we qualify today and get an away tie against (say!) Newcastle, how about that tried and tested 'double header' routine! ;D
To save you reading through, my suggestion is we focus on our game only and get that point required! The chances of a home ¼ are remote and qualifying in any way is the name of the game!
The top 4 get home ¼ finals and there is then a draw for who they play from positions 5 to 8.
Level on points goes to 1/ Number of wins 2/ Points difference.
Leader Board after Sat 19th results
1/ Bedford P5 25 (tbc Bedford Blues v Bedwas)
2/ Newcastle P5 24 (Friday, 1 February Cross Keys v Newcastle)
3/ Cornish Pirates P6 24
4/ Munster A P6 23
5/ Leinster P6 22
6/ Bristol P5 22 (Bristol v Cardiff today – can get max 27 pts)
7/ Llandovery P5 – 20 (tbc Nottingham v Llandovery – can get max 25 points)
8/ Moseley P5 19 (Llanelli v Moseley today – can get max 24 points)
One home ¼ final tie available – 4th seed
Whilst the focus is on actually qualifying by whatever result (securing 1 point as a minimum or denying Llanelli a bonus point win) there still is an outside chance of a home tie. Remote but possible.
We can’t overhaul Pirates (5 wins & +80 points difference), Newcastle (5 wins and +200 points difference) or Bedford (too many points!) meaning we are theoretically able to secure 4th place home tie berth..............but not today!
IF we get a 5 point win then we cannot be caught by either Munster and Leinster but CAN be overtaken by Bristol (playing today) or Llandovery (presume replaying next weekend).
The logic/stats
Moseley can get a maximum of 24 points which this morning would have us in that 4th position with 5 wins and a points difference of 10 plus whatever happens today.
Level on points then goes to wins. IF we get level on 24 it will be with 5 wins out of 6. Likely to be the same stat for those who we are competing with for the 4th home tie spot.
Therefore goes to points difference.
When will we know
If we don’t win today but get a point (or deny Llanelli a winning bonus point) we will qualify and await the draw for any away tie.
If we win today but without a try bonus we will qualify and await the draw for any away tie.
If we win with a bonus point and Bristol don’t lose then we will qualify and await the draw for any away tie.
If we win WITH a try bonus today AND Bristol only get a single point or less then we will qualify and have to wait until next weekend (presumably) to find out if we have a home tie. We would then need Nottingham to deny Llandovery victory of any description for the 4th home slot.
Simples eh?
IF we qualify today and get an away tie against (say!) Newcastle, how about that tried and tested 'double header' routine! ;D